This mostly applies on the upside.

When you see the 3rd “Sync” swing high in a short period, chances are that you are in a wedge. There are 2 different shapes that can make price reverse. A head and shoulders and a wedge.

Fig. 1

3 “S” on the top – check. The red and the blue lines are standard Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (Ichimoku indicator).  Of course they lag a bit, but you can get the sense of the volatility just by looking at it. The wedge is over when the Kijun-sen gets volated. You should go short just below it.

Fig. 2

3 “S” check. Break below Kijun-sen, perfect.

Fig. 3

This one shows why you should not try to guess the top, and only go short upon the blue line’s break. (After the 3rd “S” of course).

 

 

Do you have any N-Sync jokes? I can’t think of a single one.

After the second S, the break of the swing low starts the selling with A-Sync appearing as a lower high.

After the second S, the break of the swing high starts the buying with A-Sync appearing as a higher low.

Not every fractal matters.

Not every A-sync Fractal would resist, only those following a Sync fractal closely.

Async points should not be violated. The weight of the 30 minute candle is where you may be able to get in.

A tie off is when price leaving a swing point in a hurry (1H+ drop/rise).

To maximize your potential, you must travel. These indications help you finding the turns.

The priority flips when they manage to push the price over the Green River by more than 40 pips (Guard Rail – Chartreuse thick) with opposing configuration (Mr. Maroon on the other side.)

I am a traveller.
My harbors are the Sync-Async sequences not exceeding 10(U)/12(D) candles in between them.

I am looking for
– a short entry above the E16
– a long entry below the E16

There are actually countless ways to get to the same conclusion.

Here I would show a few to help you out.

Since you know the configuration, which is bearish (Green River above Mr. Maroon – see Lema 30), you are looking for a short trade.

The secon piece of information is where your target would be.

This can be derived from the daily ATR.

80% of the ATR would put price at an ATR oversold level from a swing high.

The shaded rectangle shows such measurement. The swing high is the fractal cap right before the fall. The oversold neckline is where the blue line starts – and is accented with a B/C yellow value (B/C = buy to cover). An undercut of this would be your Target 1.

The third piece you need is finding an entry signal.

The above image has show hollow rectangles to show possible entry levels based on 1h inside bars. The break of the inside low (say by 1 pip) could be utilized as an entry. Or, when price back tests these break-down points.

If you were trying to get by my provided signals, you could have entered 1/2 position based off the tie off signal and/or could had opened a short based on the Maroon Sell signal (MS).

We are on my favorite 30 minute chart now.

On the action movie chart below, the following things apply:

The Sync fractal high (where RSI2 and Stoch10 were both in the overbought), everything was legit. The following fractal high was Async: the RSI2 went deeply overbought while the stoch stayed out of the overbought field. The “A-” plot comes with the weight of the prompting candle.

The Sync / Async sequence took place above E16 (in orange). When the crack happened, you had a verified break down.

E16 could had been utilized for a secondary entry after price was below it for 10 samples and re-approcahed it in a rapid manner.

Keep in mind, the Exit1 of the short position barely changed. If you look at the tie-off prompt on the left, Exit1 was as low as 1.1509 and it only moved to 1.1503 with the last fractal high.

Other signals that could had been utilized:

• the white, wave 1 movement down clarified the direction after crossing the root point.
• price was stalling out at MR. Maroon
• price crossed below the 1H cloud
• there were a number of cyan shaded professional volume activity 1H candles around the 1.16 level

What signals were in line that you follow?

…and the extra lesson after the press release…

1. Always evaluate a Sync-Async sequence

As soon as you have the Async weight purchased, target the Green River or… Look up the breakdown that may be the resistance on the way up.

Also, please pay attention on the pullback staying in the overbought field:

 

I know, people call all kinds of things Support and Resistance.

But there is one thing that matters above all: the Green River Monster.

Here is the systematic destruction of the support: there is one level below the lower line of the River and there is another one 30 pips lower. Velocity took care of the latter one.

MR. MAROON and the GREEN RIVER are part of my LEMA 30 package. So is the 1H LEMA.

As for the MEDIAN, that the 20% single day sell-off started from can be displayed by my 4H Comfort levels.

That’s two different tools for spotting the obstacle.

Now, how can you be prepared for such a move, how could you have seen it coming from a 110% bullish configuration?

Go back to image 1, and see how the buy stops were cleared away below the Green River with the multiple visits.

The add on point was 40 pips below the GREEN RIVER, which was at about 1.1710 at the time. The above image shows the taxi lines, the total discharge of the daily energy could carry the price to, and the two shaded rectangles below are the oversold (20%) and the deeply oversold (10%) comfort levels. Interesting fact that the taxi line was hit at 1.1851 right before the sell off. The white dots are the cycle support level, the yellow dash is a Market Maker support and the blue dash is Market Maker resistance. The light green channel is something the price have been playing catch up with.

How could you have known where to catch a falling knife? I know you did not know and I know you tried.

The yellow zigzag line is the Projected Lines UFO: the initial swing plus 50%. It put the price exactly at the Fund Manager 30% level, or 1.1555.

I know, it went a smidge lower. Price is currently teeter-tottering at the 1H deeply oversold neckline, and it should fall back despite of the UFO white line pointing at the 1.1650 extension.

This is not all of course. So, when the support was broken (the GREEN RIVER monster got exceeded) the to do list was this:

#1: switch to a 1H chart. Display an RSI2 (HL2).

#2: Wait until a Sign of Strength signal shows up (initial buying). Buy the 15-pip undercut below.

#3: Target? RSI2 95 reading plus the cut above. 11 pips was eeked out.

And you thought oscillators were useless things! You just need to know what to look for.

 

Currently you have a 120% bearish configuration.

What does this mean? This means that you can sell the second fractal up and aim for a lower low. Cover on an undercut of a Low of a candle with a settled, deeply oversold RSI8 (HL2) reading.

Yes, as you can see, there are tie-off prompts – the “1/2” starting lines, and I’m playing them. 1.1509 would be the next downside-projected reading.

 

 

If only there was a way to know what the market is going to do today…

Let’s do some strip-search!

How could you have known what was gonna happen today?

The 3rd of June opened with a slight gap-up. The bias was neutral within the hourly cloud with slight upside bias for the long wick earlier and for those who had been trapped with shorts around the low 1.15-s.

What you should be looking for is the tie-off of a move!

Tie off already!

i.e.

stoch[i+1]>stoch[i+2] && stoch[i+2]<23 && stoch[i+3]>stoch[i+2] && RSI2[i+2]>stoch[i+2] && RSI2[i+2]<RSI2[i+1] && stoch[i+1]>15

The distance (for R1 or S1) is always ATR, but to be elegant, you would need to know where to measure it from.

 

Oh yes, about the entry: it is the HL2 value of the peak causing candle currently. When selling is in 3rd gear, you would have to opt for the undercut.

 

Auto crimson ATR projection lines (last 100 sample)

 

Computer Aided Trading?

Yes.  That would be my answer.

C.A.T. is you and your EA-s trading the same account.

• It consists of flexible, equity based algorithmic trade initiators that factor in your current open positions regardless of who opened the trade.
• It has croppers to trim positions based on overheated conditions.
• All positions must have stop losses.

 

So, my package currently has

Psar Trader

Genuine Trader

and E16-Trader

enlisted, and perhaps I shall add more later. They all open both longs and shorts. All orders are limit orders.

 

example for figuring size if there is already an open position in the direction:

if (nlongs==0) longsize = MathAbs(NormalizeDouble(MaxLots/2,2));
else longsize = MathAbs(NormalizeDouble(MaxLots/2-nlongs,2));

my maxsize calculation

extern double Leverage = 1.5;
extern double AF=1.3;
extern double LT=333;

double account = AccountEquity();
double MaxLots = NormalizeDouble(LT/3000000*account*AF*Leverage/StopLoss*260/2,2);

 

The targets and the stop losses are ATR based, so they change around, with Psar Trader being the exception with its static settings.

For croppers, I have an RSI2 cropper and a Darkest Hour Cropper. They both close out positions that are in gains by at least 15 pips. RSI2 is a 4h extreme and DH cropper utilizes the Darkest Hour condition from my DivergenceInterpreter plotter.

As you can guess, in order to have the margin percent under control, you would need to trade a single pair on this account.

 

I shall dedicate an account for this kind of mixed trading. I’ll keep you posted.

 

About the Genuine conditions – please try to figure what I spotted in these lows.

It has to do with the oscillator lines, and the way the price leaves the swing low. It is not a single comparison of values, but rather a sequence.

You may practice some more with the following examples:

 

 

 

 

Market classification

According to me, there are 5 types of markets.

120% buy is when the Maroon channel is above the Green River and price makes swing lows that reach below the Maroon Channel by 20 pips at most.

110% buy is when the Maroon Channel is above the Green River and price makes swing lows that reach below the Green River by 20 pips at most.

110% sell is when the Green River is above the Maroon Channel and price makes swing highs that reach above the Green River by 20 pips at most.

120% sell is when the Green River is above the Maroon Channel and price makes swing highs that reach above the Maroon Channel by 20 pips at most.

In all other markets there is no trend-edge.

I call the 110% markets as “Second Gear” and the 120% ones as “Third Gear”.

 

The percentages mean position size – in case you are invested in the wrong direction, it is the hedge size, but if you want numbers, with 200% leverage 10% overdrive would mean 5 mini lots per $1000 equity, and 20% overdrive is 6 mini lots.

 

Step 1> find the market to trade

Currently (28th of May, 2018)

120% short:

USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, EUR/JPY

110% short:

USD/CHF

110% long:

AUD/USD

120% long:

USD/CAD, AUD/CAD

The spacier the separation of the Maroon and the Green, the stronger the trend. Extra points can be gained by good alignment vs the 4H Lema – lately I call it the Deep Pink.

Class A’s:

long:

USD/CAD – where the deep pink is below – at 1.2707

short:

EUR/USD – deep pink above at 1.2136

GBP/USD – D.P. 1.3779

GBP/JPY – D.P. 150.40

EUR/JPY – D.P 131.3399

GBP/CHF – D.P. 1.3343

 

Now you have 6 pairs. Check their wave structure on 4H. You do not want to try to get in right after a terminal move.

I would disqualify the EUR/USD for it seems to have 5 waves down.

GBP/USD in a similar shoe.

GBPJPY – long in the tooth as well

EUR/JPY This kind of looks like an ABC, and this might reverse the hardest.

GBP/CHF – this might be putting in a head & shoulders, by all means it seems too late.

So, USD/CAD is the only viable candidate on a pullback.

Buy it after 2 Swing Low prints on the 30-min & cover your long upon a cut appearing above a settled RSI 85 reading.

Optimal entry would be seeing the second swing low (counted from a swing high print) that gets printed in the Maroon Channel or up to 20 pips below. That would be a 120% buy.

 

 

 

 

Computers are dumb, we are dumb and our programs are even dumber.

There are a limited number of things we can do.

In trading, no matter who you are, you would end up using more or less the same ideas, the same variables.

The if then statements turn everything black and white.

I have tried to show you at times already the issue with using closing prices as a basis of an oscillator versus the weights, the actual road traveled – weighted.

One problem with closing prices as part of your examination is that the arbitrary point of time, the top of the hour/ 30 min or whatever the denomination may be, is just that. Arbitrary.

You may end up losing information. How?

Here is an example of a fractal marker.

An upper fractal is a peak that has its two left neighbors and two right neighbors fall short from. Look at the two long white candles that have no fractal marking at the high point.

Why? because the next candle exceeded the high. Perhaps merely by seconds after the forming of the white candle was done. Black and white, disqualified. The blue candle likewise wasn’t a fractal, for it had no two neighbors falling short of its peak to the right.

Yet, I would argue that we saw a fractal.

Anything that would include taking into account the fractals, i.e. counting the number of upper fractals from a swing low, would be at times inaccurate.

 

If you engage in algorithmic trading, you would find yourself looking for means – lines that define where the price should be. With such a search, you may end up stumbling upon the hourly E16(HL2), like I did. Since I am plotting mostly on 30 mins, I had to opt for its brother, E32.

If you want to find, quick, high probability trades, you can – and most likely would – start monitoring the separation from the mean, and you would pick a sample size. The longer the separation was on for, the farther price got pulled away from your line, the more likely it is to find resistance on the re-visit. Longs get out, shorts get in kind of thing.

The thick gray line is the E16. The regression channel looking is simply a set of lines 18 pips apart. As you can see, price spends a great deal of time being in the gray zone.

The red distance is in excess of 36 pips (18+18), and it occurred during your sample size leading up to the next upper fractal that discharges on E16.

This is your first algorithm. How much can you hope for? 36 pips (to the white line). What stop should you use? 18 would do.

Please take into account the configuration of EMA 135 vs EMA 424 when deciding on the preferred side.

The above entry can be basis of a hedging routine, such as my E16 hedger. When the separation does not occur, the price could walk through the E16 without resistance. I’m sure you have seen this a million times.

This is what algorithmic trading is. Picking up on a feature that seems to repeat itself and exploiting it for it has high probability of working out.

Let’s talk about thinking ahead. Is there another 40 pips guaranteed somewhere?

Look at the 4H PSAR.

Similar idea, mean reversion…

What if you knew / predicted the location of that blue dot before it occurred, and placed a short order 5 pips shy from it? 44 pips with – say 18 stop again? Not bad. But what can you actually aim for?

There are two of such encounters on the following picture. Can you find them?

One resulted in 116 pips to the swing low, the other was only good for 30. Could not you decrease the stop to 15? You certainly could.

A side effect of this is that you can become aware of things about to happen.

Like the sell off on EUR on Friday.

Can you find where it fell short by 5 pips from the standard PSAR settings?

…and from now on I have the prediction printed on the screen, so that I can stay on my beloved 30.

double para;

if (iSAR(Symbol(),240,0.02,0.2,1)<iSAR(Symbol(),240,0.02,0.2,3)) para = iSAR(Symbol(),240,0.02,0.2,1)-(iSAR(Symbol(),240,0.02,0.2,2)-iSAR(Symbol(),240,0.02,0.2,1));
else if (iSAR(Symbol(),240,0.02,0.2,1)>iSAR(Symbol(),240,0.02,0.2,3)) para = iSAR(Symbol(),240,0.02,0.2,1)+(iSAR(Symbol(),240,0.02,0.2,1)-iSAR(Symbol(),240,0.02,0.2,2));

_E16_Channel

---

After finishing the above post, I thought, Why not make a PSAR trader?

I don’t recall ever seeing such a nice parabolic bow upwards right off the bat with any idea, so I went on to exploring more.

Added more filters, doubled sizing…

…and when I stuck with shorts only, utilized the 4H LEMA, changed the stop loss to 30 pips and kept target at 40, see the result for yourself:

Friday’s trade it would had opened at 1.1730 – as you can see…

I could change the Normalization of the Doubles to 4 digits’ length – but apparently, there’s no need for it.

…

Things like this, the finding, the thinking from start to finish, the ability to implement like a one man army makes me believe that I am possession of the finest quality of brain. Imagine the frustration that derives from it  when I seem to be unable to sell myself, unable to come across / succeed in life.

You can now build something resembling my 30-minute chart.

1. start with the 4H comfort level
2. fractals next
3. lema 30
4. divergenceinterpreter

If you end up with something similar, you did good. Don’t forget to flag candles in foreground in the properties.

_Comfort_Levels_4H_(Macdulio)

_Fractals

_LEMA_30

_divergencepetr_s6

Now with Maroon Sells…

_divergencepetr_s6

…& Buys.

 

Extra special gift:

_Symbol_Changer

& another 6 pairs

_Symbol_Changer2