36 Re-Calibrated

V1.1 can now be downloaded from this blog

The sample size was brought down to 16.

2+2 new conditions got included.

eur315

I was upset for not finding the fake-out with the previous sample size & settings – I was running one day behind with my thinking instead of the regular one day ahead.

Static sample sizes do not work with every volatility reading, but I am aiming to find a sweet spot.

 

 

Comfort Levels Re-Visited

A bit of an actuality.

You can now download the 1H version from the Environment/Downloads menu.

The gap up over the weekend had the following purpose:  they put back the price into the overbought area.

As Ira Epstein would put it: they saved it (which can be done within 1 day of losing the overbought field – according to him).

Embedding means three consecutive days in the overbought or oversold field. This develops a safety for constant buying/selling.

Once price gets out of the overbought/oversold area, it is poised for a big distance move: from oversold to overbought is 60% of the total range, and that is if it even stops at the opposite neckline.

As Scott Barkley said about the Market Makers, that have positions to regurgitate back to the public, “they create a buyers / sellers market”.

Although I never quite understood what he exactly meant by that, this gap-up example does provide us with some answer; the gap required a small out of hours movement, that “saved” the price from losing the overbought status, practically they put the train back on the rails to secure their baggage to be picked up on the way.

Alles Klar, Kommisar?

 

Latest Article

The latest code, the Head Finder can be downloaded from the ENVIRONMENT / DOWNLOADS section.

I made it for 4H, but admittedly using it on 30 min as well.

It plots 2 things:

  • white flags for perceived left shoulders that would be re-visited, and
  • blue butterflies for perceived heads, that should not be exceeded or be broken

Of course not all heads and left shoulders would get found, so do not rely on this blindly, yet the plots are rather useful – according to me.

Now, the area of the lower fold of the right flag is the target area, but it only lines up right on 4H.

The heads are where things happen. I define a fake out at about 30 pips, you should surrender and possibly reverse beyond that point.