Every Wave 2 makes a move back through Mr. Maroon. Here, it represented as an inaccurate, single thin line on the 4H HL2 values as E-17, but I monitor for this move on the 30-minute chart where I plot the E-135 high and low lines making for a double band.
What is a scam? It is a promise that does not get delivered. The intention isn’t always clear.
We all get scammed on day to day basis.
It is not always as obvious as opening an account with a Binary Forex trader.
Say, if you sign up for overtime at one place, and they grant it to you, then you have to say no to an other offer, but in the end they cancel the shift on you and now you’re left with no offers and no income, were you scammed?
Think deception, misleading to grasp the concept of a scam.
That firm that calls itself Atlantic Housing puts you with a bill upon moving out that is twice larger than the deposit and all entries are made up excuses (such as this and that was broken, when they were not), then what business is this company really in?
The caused damages may be material as well as immaterial, such as emotional. Some scams you may never recover from.
Who is going to give me back the 1.5 years of my life when I could not meet with my own child and wife thanks to the scam that was running under UK Immigration Barristers?
We lost a great deal more than just a fee, several years without income and all the expenses during including being penalized for Visa extension every 3 months. This company did nothing but made sure you would fail the application due to being incomplete. Mind you, this was the number one find on Google under Immigration Lawyers UK at the time.
They even tried to peel off a second layer of skin, to which I responded: “I have nothing left to give”.
So don’t believe anything you find on the internet just because a search engine finds it. I have become a UK citizen since and so did my daughter, but this didn’t repair all of the caused damages.
The above things would probably explain why I am so adamant about fighting scams.
A Ponzi scheme is a scam for obvious reasons.
Here is what I wrote down this morning:
I am convinced that these companies utilize Ponzi scheme as their business model. If they “financed” 300 people, that’s likely five times as many attempts = 900,000 USD revenue in a year (That does not cover the promised 30M though). You have liabilities of a few workers with Eastern European salaries to do the database handling / web surface. Remember, one has to submit the invoice for a x 0.7 amount that you get to work on figuring out. Such scrutiny is rather cheap. Of course there are no risks for the company until the new entry interest drops down and the “funded” accounts start claiming more money that is flowing in. It is easy to absorb the losses on a demo account. The idea owner may even feel like he’s doing good by eliminating all risks for others. Almost all risks. The company was funded in 2014, when it was local. Now it is listed in the US with unknown number of workers and comments about not even responding to emails. I personally don’t think that there are more than 3 or 4 people running this, the rest was a matter of T-shirts and posing for pictures.
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Take for instance the Institute of Trading. Perfect name for a scammer.
They sell mentoring programs for 60k or 15k depending on if you want a 10-day holiday up front.
Those ex Execution traders running the scheme capitalize on the credits they earned by having worked for the famous Lehman Brothers.
Then you have to open an account with Valbury, for a minimum of 15k. Then they let you keep 35% of your own profits – and people are lining up for this suicid slavery in hopes of inside information that these kooks may be in possession of when they are citing “80% fundamental” analysis.
This would had been my advice a decade ago to myself when I started trading.
I will walk you through how I knew exactly (for the most part) what wave was the market in today.
Two days ago, when I was mad wrong, I was refusing to acknowledge this 5-wave structure down as valid, for the 5th Wave seemed to have fallen so shy of the low made during the 3rd.
Green circle: 4-H Maroon Fake-out
Nonetheless, this was right. What was particularly hard to digest was the fact that the market made a turn back up without a qualified footing: it never even got close to the Bear Zone to have the chance to do so.
Yet, thanks to the news, someone went in shorts to some irrational extent that temporarily suspended the possibility of further progression downwards -> the top would be re-tested.
Now, once these 5 Waves were figured out, on the 1H you would be able to spot something no one ever talks about (other than me): the volatility whip. It is marked in white; they usually appear after a 5th wave, and although the price fluctuates a bit from the starting point to the end point, they do not become part of the wave structure, they are the free ball thrown up over the net waiting for the first team to jump on it.
There are tremendous implications to this (shout out to Mr. Elliott), and it is more than shocking that a Wave 2 up can go way beyond the starting point of Wave 1, but this is how things are.
To add some more shocking ripples down the spine, here are other facts nobody even considers.
There is no Wave 1 or Wave 2 without the approval of the Market Maker.
See, all they have to do is stop giving fills until they manage to dish out their surplus in one direction.
I’ve been saying that they are hiding behind Mr. Maroon, which is the 135 EMA HIGH and LOW on the 30 min – or for less smooth results turn to E17 on the 4H.
For a Wave 1 to be validated, two things has to happen:
The Market Makers must let it cross the wall of their stronghold
The Volatility Whip’s terminal must be broken decidedly
(I fine-tuned the lines with the 30-min RSI2 readings)
There are other simple rules to be found, such as, the wave structure would only make progress if Mr. Maroon gets violated by the first wave.
Now, you can probably start to appreciate why did I adjust my targets on my shorts to 1.1070 on the way down, in Wave 1: because the low point of the RSI divergence’s measuring leg had a low of 1.10788.
No, I did not wait for any one of these to go to target, but the lesson here is about the right thinking (that can make a world of difference). You can be right, have low self esteem and still make plenty of money.
Which brings me to my last point.
Before the FOMC, Wave 1 and Wave 2 were printed. How many directions could had gone the 3rd Wave?
If you really think that a news event like this can have a not already decided outcome, then wake up & smell the coffee.
How not to F up the bias?
I thought about this a bit after the FOMC.
If you were to use two bias numbers, you could get a good picture of which way the market & accordingly the wave count would be unfolding.
Refer to the cyan chart-shot above.
When you had your 5th wave, the primary bias was set.
1.0 means – up & away, -1.0 means down, down and down some more.
The secondary bias would come from price being above the Green River or below (414 EMA per 30 min) cca 52 EMA per 4H.
The range of the secondary score would be 0.25 to – 0.25
And the change would occur if price just went over the Green River – turning it to 0, and the quarter bias would be supplied by after a cross over making a new 4-hour RSI2 oversold / overbought print. For instance, if price slips below the 52 EMA and stays there, becomes hourly overbought, then you just set the secondary bias to -0.25
From all written above it is clear to see that a mean reversion would always be happening with a + – 0.75 score – and there is one in progress right now.
To answer the question, where would you be wrong about…
…being short in the bull zone – I now have the 31-pip displacement value in cyan printed with brackets (must go long above kind of thing).
…in case you are wondering where the Volatility Whip ended / Wave 1 started on the way down:
Wave 1 has the approval of the market makers: it takes out Mr. Maroon (or the closer end of it at the very least). If the sound barrier gets mildly violated, the wave went too far. Wave 2 is the trickle back through Mr. Maroon for the Market Makers to ditch counter positions. Scale in for a wave 3 starting at a Hourly RSI2 extreme. 4H sup / res can also give a clue. Wave 3 correct the target to beyond daily fuel limit, beyond the guard rail, find the next MM level / daily resistance confluence. Let the trail stop do its thing: wide start (3 & .3).
If on a wave 1 move the sound barrier gets taken out, the next support level would be the daily fuel limit. If a sound barrier gets taken out by more than 6 pips, you are looking at the end of a Wave 3 and you can calculate a 16 or 26 pips failure for the end point of Wave 5.
Wave 3 would likely be made of 5 sub waves, on the Hourly, look for Whoop, Bam and Boogie. Remember the relationship between Bam and Boogie. The failed break outs would either happen at 4 pips, 16 pips or 26 pips. Wave 5 of Wave 3 would likely start from beyond the E16, so a God Almighty print may appear.
Wave 5 of Wave 3 would end in minimum a 15-minute RSI2 divergence.
Wave 4 might go as deep as trampling into Wave 1, but for the most part the spark zone would be enough to launch Wave 5. Wave 4, the ambitious may go oversold twice before wave 5 would kick in.
They wanted 10% gains for the 1st month, with less than 10% maximum draw down.
This is the 13th trading day, and I am calling it a month. The maximum draw down never reached 3.5%.
About the reality of trading with a Demo, in particular on the Demo3 server of IC Markets:
Just today I thought of having another pass at a hybrid hedger, which would leave pending orders with the broker in case your system goes offline, but with IC markets I could never fully overcome their Hyperactivity account suspension stupidity.
Plus their demo3 server goes offline frequently and for long periods leaving gaps in the data. Demo 2 had no such issues.
Since I mentioned hardware and software here, I also had to buy a WiFi signal amplifier at home after I moved the computer desk. This comes with bandwidth loss.
About the reality of trading with a daytime job:
You would certainly need a job where you are allowed to have your cell on and enough time on your side to be able to follow and interact with the changes. Maintenance was a conscious decision by me, but it has its etwork/coverage issues with the lot of moving about and its tons of rebars to phase you out. I certainly would not be able to do this in catering or with an office job.
I thought I made some kind of a record when a back test on MT4 came back with a Profit Factor of 45,000+
Durging this test with the 100:1 leverage, I was switching off between two accounts and somehow my 3 lot size went to 1 micro lot, and I opened with that. Later I just closed out this odd lot, not paying attention to the actual balance, and so I ended up with my first losing trade. I think it was probably 3 cents of a loss with the commission factored in.
Profit factor can only be figured from the comparison of your losses and gains, so you need to have a miniscule loss (especially if you are like me, and only like taking losses on your own terms.)
I was already pushing 200,000 profit factor and 1.4 Sharpe ratio, when my second accident happened.
This time I was trying to read off the market maker level with a remote view of my desktop and I ended up dragging an open orde, and not realising this, I clicked on a stop loss that was ultimately hit. Without this move my profit factor and Sharpe would had kept on going up in the skies.
These were the rules:
1. Challenge: the first 30 days
The Challenge is a 30-day simulated trading account in which you have the opportunity to demonstrate discipline in meeting the money and risk management objectives. Your trading style is completely up to you, we do not set any limits on instruments or position size you trade. We measure your trading performance based on the Trading Objectives.
2. Verification
The objective of the Verification is to verify, for the last time, that you have a solid and consistent strategy. The differences in the Trading Objectives between the Challenge and the Verification are in the Profit Target and in the Time Period. The Profit Target is reduced by 50% and the Trading Period is extended to 60 days.
3. Funding
As soon as you meet the Trading Objectives of the Challenge and the Verification, you will get a funded account. Now you can start making real money. The only objectives you must follow are the Maximum Daily Loss, Maximum Loss and Minimum Trading Days. These three objectives are protected by our proprietary software. We no longer require you to meet the Profit Target or other Trading Objectives. Trading objectives/rules
Trading Rules/Objectives: Minimum trading days:
To meet this objective you must trade at least for 10 days during the testing period. At least one position must be opened in each of these days.
A trading day means a day when at least one trade is executed.
If a trade is held over multiple days, the day when the trade was executed is considered as the trading day.
Positive Days:You must reach at least 50% of positive days compared to the number of negative days, where a positive day is considered to be such a day where the value of the account balance is higher at 23:59:59 CE(S)T than it was on the same day at 0:00:01 CE(S)T.
Maximum Daily Loss
This rule can also be called “trader’s daily stop-loss”. According to our rules, this is set as 5% (10% in case of an Aggressive version) from the initial capital value. The rule says that in any moment of the day (CE(S)T – Central European Summer Time), the result of all closed positions in sum with the currently open floating P/Ls (profits/losses) must not hit the determined daily loss limit. The counting formula:
Current daily loss = results of closed positions of this day + result of open positions.
For example, in a case of the Challenge with the initial capital of €40000, the Max Daily Loss limit is €2000. If you happen to lose €1000 in your closed trades, your account must not decline more than €1000 this day. It must also not go -€1000 in your open floating losses. The limit is inclusive of commissions and swaps.
Vice versa, if you profit €2000 in one day, then you can afford to lose €4000, but not more than that. Once again, be reminded that your Maximum Daily Loss counts your open trades as well. For example, if in one day, you have closed trades with a loss of €1000 and then you open a new trade that goes into a floating loss of some -€1200 but ends up positive in the end, unfortunately, it is already too late. In one moment, your daily loss was -€2200 on the equity, which is more than the permitted loss of €2000.
Be careful, the Maximum Daily Loss resets at midnight CE(S)T! Let’s say that one day you had a profit of €600. On the same day, you have an open position with a currently floating loss of €2500. On this day, the maximum daily loss is not violated. The current daily loss is €1900. ( €600 closed profit – €2500 open position). However, if you hold this position with the open loss of €2500 after midnight, the daily loss limit will be violated. This is because your previous day profit doesn’t count to a new day and the open loss of €2500 exceeds the max daily permitted loss of €2000.
& these are the days
Take the back seat and ride… in time…
Hi, Thanks for thinking of me. I don’t understand these draw down values, I never have. To make money you need to take risk. What if it something goes against you by more than 10%? Than you are disqualified? From what?I am not the watching paint dry type. Best Regards,Achilles
You are right, I did not mean to come across rude. Where and how get onto this program?
Another fellow trader in London that I connected with via LinkedIn told me about it. There is a fee to do the challenge and strict parameters but if it works, you get paid to watch paint dry.
Hi, That’s a lot of rules to live by. Are you sure that these people do not just try to live off the nomination fees?If you care to wager the fee, we could do a trial run, sure.Is this MT4? I would need my trail stops running.
Hi I will try to make this a good reference account. You never know. When you have plenty of funds, it may make sense to trade like this. Achilles
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The server has been hanging for the last 16 minutes
Was offline for almost an hour. Just as I remembered. I feel doomed.
The usual 1h no connection.
28 minutes this time.30 left to FOMC.A lot can happen in 28 mins.
I’ll push on for now. I hope I won’t regret it.
Every dog will have its day, I’m obeying the rules for now. It does not make much, but it does not lose much either. Especially if after getting your two strikes you suspend trading to regroup. It is always easier to reconsider when you do not have any open positions. 16 pips has been a good choice so far, but I do cut positions too early, so I need to move out to 4h, have some plan and perhaps make the trail stop less aggressive.
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Understood. It looks like your system is working and compliant with the restrictions imposed. Like I said, somewhat restrictive but the potential funding is for a larger acct which makes the absolute gains more attractive than the percentage gains themselves.
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Let’s talk about the Kite
I should had started a new demo effective of the next day, for the new, more restrictive rules would have to shine through the stats not in a shape of an average for the entire period.
I did not. And I got into trouble. I did not read well enough the market maker intentions, I thought I had more time to play longs. I had two, 3-lot positions open. I clicked on an at market close at around 100 gains… Nothing happened, the demo was hanging again. When it came back, it closed out the position with a 0.7% loss. That’s what I call Russian Roulette.
I got pissed, and I started burdening the account to see what a 100:1 can take. I knew I still had time to recover.
On the 16th day I cut the balance above 10% gains still fulfilling the listed criteria of gains, losses & draw downs.
Since G.A. is the root of the next wave structure, where you expect the wave 5 to fail to surpass the furthest point printed on the wave 3 by 4, 16 or 26 pips, you can calculate your exit and reversal quite accurately.
The risk of a secondary wave structure is that Wave 5 would be immediately followed by a strong Wave 1 in the opposite direction.
A Wave 1 for the last time, is when Mr. Maroon gets exceeded with one single impulse move = Market Makers have given their approval.
The overall market direction gets decided by a wave 1 print that is visible on the 1H chart.
So, step 1 is to plot my Stochastic Combo indicator (will put it up from home) – now with even more plots – then listen and learn.
You would have to plot it as 3rd indicator below to see the additional plots, or change the window numbers in the source – sorry.
Figure #1
A wave 1 is a full throttle move, which means that both the red and the green stochastic lines make a bee line that connects the oversold with the overbought field. A wave ends in an even split – one line in the overbought, the other in the oversold. In this instance the F and the stripe both meant to draw attention for a fresh overbought sell signal. The next fresh overbought was also a wave 2 of Wave 3 down , and the 3rd blue block happened in the early part of Wave 4.
A turn should start to happen on a lower time frame and start to propagate upwards, but if you saw a Wave 1 print, you must do all in your power to change / reverse your direction holding direction on the separation of Wave 2.
As an exercise, could you spot the primary Wave 1 and the “must reverse” stochastic set up of Wave 2?
A primary Wave 1 is a Market Maker approved reversal, a secondary Wave 1 does not come with the change the of Wave structure’s direction.
Figure #3 has a secondary Wave 1 on it
Figure #4: The primary Wave 1 down happened earlier, here
The retest of the Head is an opportunity for squaring.
The following picture shows the three runs on the head, where the market makers had to get their longs off the book.
The same thing took more runs on the downside
Knowing all of these, where does the market maker reside?
In general, they are closer than the other side of Mr. Maroon, but further then the guard rail.
The second picture shows that aggressive smack down initiated from where the Karma Police would be hanging out: they had to get rid of some more longs, the last three dips were not enough -> on the way up the Karma field got crossed over with ease, finding no resistance whatsoever.