Don’t be oblivious to the fact that you are oblivious to facts.
Goldman Sachs, and has always Sached.
Completely out of content here, just hissing and pissing.
Yeah, I’ve said it all in the 4×3 entry. It is going to crash back down after the 360-370 pips rally, right where price is at on the 3rd week of March before proceeding lower.
Higher for longer w/ something a whole lot stronger.
You won’t find literature anywhere about continuation divrgences, I named them that. Divergence and reverse divergence never made any sense in my mind, since they do not come with any direction by default.
Keep on exploring new horizons, such as what is a divergence and what isn’t. A taper can be upgraded (purple) by the wind arriving from the direction of the Green River. This is how I knew that I would need to take the next continuation divergence seriously and associate the next logical exit for any divergence.
This is where price ended up catching up with the Stratosphere line: 1.0553
I got hedged in at 1.05985 right after the daily re-balancing. I use the stop loss filed as a code to inform my routines which EMA displacement to target for in real time.
/////Long Target - Code 45 AXEL H STRATOSPHERE
if( OrderType()==OP_BUY && OrderStopLoss()==.45 && OrderTakeProfit()!=NormalizeDouble(iMA(symbol,30,64,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,0)+450*Point,4) && OrderOpenPrice()<NormalizeDouble(iMA(symbol,30,64,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,0)+450*Point,4)-30*Point
)
{ OrderModify(OrderTicket(), OrderOpenPrice(), OrderStopLoss(), NormalizeDouble(iMA(symbol,30,64,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,0)+450*Point,4), OrderExpiration());
Print("LONG Target Set to AXEL H-S @ "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(iMA(symbol,30,64,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,0)+450*Point,4),4));}
/////Short Target - Code 45 AXEL H STRATOSPHERE
if( OrderType()==OP_SELL && OrderStopLoss()==4.5 && OrderTakeProfit()!=NormalizeDouble(iMA(symbol,30,64,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,0)-450*Point,4) && OrderOpenPrice()>NormalizeDouble(iMA(symbol,30,64,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,0)-450*Point,4)+30*Point
)
{ OrderModify(OrderTicket(), OrderOpenPrice(), OrderStopLoss(), NormalizeDouble(iMA(symbol,30,64,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,0)-450*Point,4), OrderExpiration());
Print("SHORT Target Set to AXEL H-S @ "+DoubleToStr(NormalizeDouble(iMA(symbol,30,64,0,MODE_EMA, PRICE_MEDIAN,0)-450*Point,4),4)); }
What does high volatility mean? That things turn on the high burn.
What happens when the S3/R3 gets violated by more than a Fluctuation Maxiumum (instrument dependent)? Cap sizing of the trend. The next swing high is going to be a lower high.
L’ Ingredientes (from the banqueting research department)
30-min chart
240 Sample BB in Cadet Blue
45-pip displacements of the E-32 (hourly) E-64 on the 30 min in White (aka Stratosphere lines)
14-sample Money Flow
can add E-414 band aka Green River (approx 9-day EMA)
The warm up (to the conclusion that there are 3 different divergences that matter) for one person
Every revesal divergence (excluding tapers) requires a move beyond the startosphere line.
When not outside both the 120 sample BB, that is an early interruption, intervention the sign of aggression. Buying around the Green River is a dead Giveaway.
The Pound of Flesh above had some Eggs Over Helium included beyond the Stratosphere line, a complete meal & a match ball.
Reversal divergences come with a measuring leg and one or more divergent legs.
On the next image spot the magenta and the cyan divergences.
The Magenta is one form of the “45” divergences. It is not red. because the money flow does not make it to 2/3 of the way in the opposite direction (from the overbough to the oversold i.e. <33 read) between the measuring and the divergent leg.
The cyan divergence is the big bow (total span from white to white), when above the Green River it may be an early bird entry.
The continuation divergences are where you should commit the bigger money. I use the two Maroon interrupted lines to know when a pullback went too far on the money flow.
Below showing the anticipation of a continuation divergence and a break of of one (after a target fill at the middlle BB).
There is a taper into the cyan field above adding to / Rounding Up the Early, Magenta Divergence to a Red One.
The Red Reversal Divergence is the Real Deal. Commit extra amount of money at the continuation divergence that follows the reversal.
You can certainly ignore any threat that was made before the Red Continuation Divergence prints.
If there is a Pound of Flesh beyond the Startosphere line, there is a Ton of Flesh to be had beyond the Ionosphere Line, which is the 87-pip displacement of the same E-64.
Next image:
Pound of Flesh on the downside, on the upside and commitments in the shape of continuation divergences. As long as the highs stay lower ones, you can simply add on.
The last image comes with the broken Big Bow divergence (below the Green River) and a Magenta Early Divergence. I am looking for the continuation divergence here for a Pound of Flesh. The line is in place, waiting for the gap down / move lower.
What’s common with Peter Reznicek, Jesus and the band called Hoobastank?
Horton Hears a Ho. Hoobastank is phonetic for Whose Butt Stank? Jesus H. Christ & the “h” pattern that is hard to break lower out of – according to the Shadow Trader.
I guess, this joke didn’t “h” well.
An “h” pattern is an ABC move with the 3rd leg undercutting the 1st leg by a little putting an end to the move in the direction.
What do you see when you are looking at that continuation lower high with the enormous wick to the 19 EMA? A major rejection?
I see a low volume high speed runway ready for take off (Chickpeas).
What about here, what about now?
How about a liquidity grab with a Wave 2 getting folded back on itself – to raid the dirt box as I always say it.
Show me how you do that trick
When you work as a Compositor / Cameraman (in an imitation 3D production) half of your time is gonna be spent with applying and animating shadows.
In the wall thrown shadows scene I used Trapcode Shine for the distortions and built the mask script with After Effects. It is stunning how complicated a simple looking scene can get. Good thing I always loved to build logical circuits. I’m showing you this to give an insight to the difficulties of making cartoons. Not even going to mention multiplaning here.
Other than the cartoon thing all of my jobs were of hard physical labor. People keep me for my strength. If only they knew…
I’ve noticed that indians & alien technology sells, so how about Chingachgook & Shinkanzen for a new comic book idea?
Cherokees & Cherry Coke. Nemo & Geronimo.
New company logo
Ramalama ping-pong. Upper Guard Rail (1x Fluctuation Max stretch), Lower Guard Rail (3 times in a row). Sweet Child of Mine, where do we go now?
…Crack! So much for the idea of the “h”.
Anywho, there’s the big bow with the full arch between the measuring and the divergent leg.
Current &
Prior example
Yes, headed for the Cyan Box
…with some delay. The 15% Fiboacci Extension is at 1.0636. 1.0615 is the weekly S3.
All we need is a faith healer…
I’ve been talking about a low 1.06xx target since the 28th of January.
I said to look for 3 factals outside the 30-sample BB.
B and T are two. The question is the location of the last fractal.
I do not think that the opening 4H candle is not going to take away the pending privilege from the low made 5 hours before the close, yet that could be a phony print. Explain? The spread would get cranked up for the pre hours, and since this is a bid chart, you may not be able to cover in gains, as the ask would stay relatively unchanged.
The mirror part. When the low was made, there were 5 legs up. Two corrective structures and a total of 3 4H fractals outside the BB.
B, T and T.
One actually fell a bit shy of the band, thus it was colored Teal. Teal hints a return to the mean, which is either the S30 or the E32. On the first chart this was the E-32.
The similarities: after the fractal gets finalized (may take 12 hours if there is a new low in the first 4 hours), 5 waves would be considered spent.
Differences: the total move up from the bottom was faster and got further. 470 pips to be exact.
With this, the R3 was violated by 45+ pips on the upside and there was no new low made afterwards. The current move is at 365 pips and has been trickling much slower, with less conviction. Even after the capsizing event, price mustered to go back to the dirt box at the end of the original Wave 2 for liquidity.
Mirroring the idea, the dirt box starts at 1.09396, and that is if this is not going to go on to start making new highs, which should be an open possibility without the capsize beat below the 1.0617 S3 by at least 45 pips.
I’m getting book deep into the divergences as you saw before, and I believe two good divergences should make this bottom solid for now, and the weekly S3 won’t be reached.
I believe that the exodus from the Dollar is not over yet.
All of the max pain levels are higher than this price until the middle of March.
Since I have already used Sandra’s Mirrored In Your Eyes here before, here’s Sandra’s voice in an Enigma song instead.
Pro weekly volume candle support + E-59 the separator of the two markets just below.
I’ve been thinking of the time when the English are sick to death of flavour.
It’s ok, I’m allowed to say things like this, I’m British. Would you like a cucumber sandwich for tea?
Not sure why it took me forever to come around to typical prices. I now see divergences in an entirely new light.
The boxes are continuation divergences, the lines are reversals.
The first, Magenta is what I call an early divergence. There is no deep enough valley between the peaks, but there is a steep divergence.
The yellow divergences are not good enoug to be called divergences, they are tapers.
What is likely to happen after the early divergence print is that the market falls into a zigzag cycle.
The zigzags are ABC moves that are going to be going on until a real reversal divergence shows up – red line. A real reversal has one of its leg in the overbought / oversold and price trips over the startosphere line (white).
The actuality of course is the early divergence print today.
Pushing some more Stive Morgan. The guy has a thousand colors.
…stochastic bar (my Hybrid make is still available in the downloads) missing a beat aka Faith Healer. Either/or OR All.
In comparison to the Utmost condition that terminates a corrective structure, a divergence is not a straight out rejection calling the direction wrong, it is a walk away for wearing off the degree of overbought / oversold condition. In fact, the divergence underlines that this remains the direction of progression.
If I had to make a guess about where the Wave 4 up would cap out, I would look at the R1 at 1.0785 and the MA ribbon displacement at 1.0795.
Wave 3 was a channeling move, which means that it was kept outside the pendulum (green shaded moat).
The Suppressor Line is the E-16 HL2 hourly that defines a channeling move. Relative to the E-44, 35 and 45 pips out. The momentum line shows the divergence as well (double).
Return from 50% to 40%. Me thinks a Wave 4 up before a Wave 5 making a lower low. Then perhaps an ABC up for a right shoulder.
Yet another method I use for a prospect Wave 4 terminal:
Short & sweet artikel.
Wave 5 could tag the weekly S3 at 1.0617.
If the move would get to 45 pips beyond the mentioned value, the boat would capsize completely. Whatever rally that right shoulder would make, it should not trigger a Push, so it would have to close below the 14-sample Window Envelope (in blue).
The holdings are in line with more downside to come.
I am going to change this, but I wanna show something first.
What I don’t like about this plot is that if the market is at the steepest degree, the Push moves cross over the previous blow off lines, although only the Echo that counts.
So I am getting there. Never met anyone who is trying to make definitions for vague concepts, lingo and ends up thinking up market models with unabated inerest.
A few things to say here. I have been talking about not trying to fade within the blow off by 160 pips at least. At the bottom there was an approach that came within 100, and that was on the generous side. I do not expect this to get back as far.
TY
I changed the TY switch number from 26 to 27 pips. Think of the green shading as liquid water. Once the distance drops below 27 pips, the market can cross over over the thin ice. This is what the title was meant to refer to.
The next thing is the directives. High importance of the E-32 and the S-30. Also the [-> number would project a lower open.
Next thing the U-s. Two examples say that you would have to see a total of 3x 4H fractals outside the 30 Bollinger.
Example 1:
Example 2:
Overall there’s a faint possibility to reach back into the dirt pocket at the swing high made by Wave 2 (i.e. via a Spike) which was at 1.0939 (plus a handful of pips slack) before the Wave 5 down.
I did notice the upside volatility choke during Wave 1 down, but for Friday I thought they would push back the FXE above max pain at 100. Instead the opex was at 99.70 and the close at 99.58
It is interesting to see how the IG positioning went to 49% long vs 51% short whilst on the way up the typical long was at 39-40%.
You’ll just have to take my word for it, as their server is not functioning over the weekend. The direction is down and it is down hard. A Wave 4 may walk back into the Wave 1 at 1.0884+, but this is not a given. I have longs I need to get out of on a move up all the way from 1.0852. After that I would just have my 3.3 lots core shorts and play the downside for the mentioned 3 fractal prints with sell stops at every 10 pips down + my auto trail lock in routine. I would allow for a bigger bounce after hiting 1.0730-1.0720 where I intend to take up a full hedge at. That’s my trading plan.