As it turns out, a 200+ pip day which is more than 2x the statistical ATR is on the level. Overrides everything, including momentum at once.
R2 was reached and so was the ATR target.
Coming back after only 2 houtly closes above sounds like a failure, yea that’s another long body, but now the volume that went has come back out. CAPsize would have the last word. There is also a divergence between the initial 300 versus the current 260.
The 6.5x stretch ftom the mean on the upside beats the largest in recent history that was 5.9
There’s a Lema just above. Could this reach it? I’d say at low odds. Once the 5x white line is lost, this would not be able to get back up above again.
The downside stetch with this volatility on the roll could perform a 10x next.
A bottoming process should look like a dog with a bone in its mouth waving it left and right. This was left.
…
Final score: 6.8x stretch, No Break Extension move printed the same day
It took me 12 years to grow up to the 4H chart. I think this might save you some time.
Admittedly, things would take a long route when you start with denying factory settings, indicators on closing prices and don’t get the urge at once to start applying std bands around RSI14 HL2 readings. Sometimes lag is just what you need to arrive at the right conclusion.
The art of choice.
Utmost Condition
The utmost condition is an outside (of the BB) and an outside (RSI14 +- 2 SD) combo.
A spike back reinforces the charge and will take no prisoners until an utmost opposition is met. A spike back has a thrust wick in excess of 45 pips and crossed over back and forth either the 4H BB upper, lower or the middle line.
The market holding direction can be changed by an utmost condition or a 5-wave structure where price gets outside the BB at least twice. A spike back reinstates the holding direction against its wick.
Culinary Tract: After the U comes a T and an I which kicks in the final leg / Wave 5.
It’s just a conclusion.
Now I’m just gonna have to make a new Hedger with the name, Quick Feet and use the switch back around the hourly 8 EMO as a trigger in case the wave count got screwed up.
Today I could had made funds for an 85-inch Samsung + a Retro Console PC by buying at the open, instead I have been watching all day my draw down growing ever larger from 24% to 42% and only cashing in a chump change of $220.
Pitifully mishandled this Decisive move knowing that Friday was the largest daily candle going back several years.
I already know that the last swing would be a swing in excess of 100 pips.
I have suspected that price would get outside the 30-sample BB.
But there’s just one thing.
Where’s the confirmation of the turn?
If we go back to the previous two examples, there’s something precious hidden in the charts.
After 2 consecutive closes on the other side of the 8-EMO, the buy level (short cover) presented itself as 10 pips lower than the second hourly close over.
We need to see something similar happen for the cover level to show itself as this second example. 2 closes below the 8-EMO and 10 pips above the second close is the get out of long / go short level.
btw, after 4x stretch on the downside the market managed a 3.6x stretch on the upside
Decisive moves. Let’s start pulling on this thread.
Sample size of 3.
Say true things.
Thesis: after a decisive move you’ll see one or more addotional legs until the last swing distance exceeds 95 pips (plus a No Break Extension – extra 40 pips may or may not be in the cards). This would represent the finishing wave structure, quasi the decisive move kick starts a terminal Wave structure that ends up culminating in a capitulation. Gaps are signs of impulse waves.
Figeroa 1: the second swing up went from 9998 to 1.0094
Figeroa 2: the next swing went from 9873 to 9728
Figeroa 3: the second swing went from 9901 to 1.0006
I guess the wave count dilemma never really was one in the ligth of this highlight. As you can see, a gap down is not necessarily a bearish thing (especially when gapping into the 8-hour EMA), it is simply a re-balancing act. A good lesson this was, I hope I shall remember it going forward. The difference could be money bags vs body bag.
What’s in a bird?
I saw the sign, La Isla Bhagavad Gita & I opened up my flies. I saw the sign.
I started marking up decisive moves. 90 pips or more within 2 hours. Yes, 190 qualifies.
Normally it would be like, decisive move, market staying overbought / oversold and no bow back beyond 32 pips – see the fractal to fractal move right after the RedOrange shaded part.
Recap. I mentioned 0.9736 being the next stop and that would put price at 4x stretch from the mean.
Check.
I was guessing to see 3x step out of the BB. There were only 2.
4x stretch is about what the market can do with “normal” levels of volatility – but this market is not at all normal.
Price already has swung to the other side all the way to a 2.375 stretch.
What’s going on? What is the wave structure here?
Nothing seems to work out. Must take things one day at a time.
I called the run to the CAP a Wave 3. A 300 move is final. Does this mean that this Wave 5 up is a right shoulder?
The biggest changes are on the weekly chart.
Ever since the megaphone there has not been a sequence of more than 2 weeks closing above the lower 2std 14-sample Window Envelope (Magenta) until now. Price was also closing above last week’s pivot and the Oversold neckline. 224 pips range talks of rising volatility. Stochastic embedding is lost, the touch of the 21EMA (White) would be the next logical move. So the match of or a beat of the Wave 3’s high would be logical to see from a Wave 5.
There should be a serious re-balancing first, and I am looking at 0.9845-50 as suspect, but after a couple of closes above the 20DEMA, the momentum should flip back up.
As an alternate count would call this current move up a Wave 4. This run up did bot manage the last swing high and this may result in a gap down.
I have seen Wave 1s before falling short of the Overdrive band and also seen the first leg of a Wave 4 violating the Overdrive.
If you connect the low ow Wave 1 and the low of Wave 3, that vector would hit the next projection bunch down at 0.9479 in 18×4 hours = 3 days.
A 9x stretch from the mean would mean 0.95 or a bit lower. It would make sense to improve on the reversal divergence after a major acceleration made by Wave 1: an RSI2 at closing still below 12.5, but way higher than that 3.8 reading at the end of Wave 3. Not at all madness.
These boobs were made for stalking & that’s just what you’ll do. One of these days they’re gonna bounce all over you.
Am I gonna put out any content with it? Good question. Can’t just leave all of this talent on the shelves to waste. So for all the haters & the hooters, here it is:
There are new naked emperors out there ripping off the FTMO scam shuffled in on YouTube with an extra hot chick. Fidelcrest or something.
It’s been a while since we’ve talked about the Range.
Today’s example of the side to side quick shuffle was a reminder of something I would have forgotten about if it wasn’t for a piece of code I made earlier.
The ticking bomb and the TGT plots go hand in hand. The bomb means a possible head. What the piece of code says is basically this: when the price makes a go outside the RES/SUP and closes back within the range on the same candle, the opposite side’s 45% extension becomes the target.
The NBE levels are 36-pips away from the consolidation mean (= Purple arrow). The upper NBE equates to the top of the range (100%) and the bottom one to the bottom (0%).
The Dermia lines also come with this color / bias logic, that I may not have shown until now in full detail. In this example they highlighted a zone where price was above one of them but still below the other. The middle of this zone also coincided with the gray zone with the black line next to it / the 3-day ATR + 30% in one direction.
BighBuffer2=(iClose(symbol,15,i))+ATRAVG[i]*1.30;
This part you have seen:
dermia[i]=dermia[i+1];
dermia2[i]=dermia2[i+1];
if (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_LOWER,i) && Low[i]<taxi[i] && Low[i]<iLow(symbol,0,iLowest(symbol,0,MODE_LOW,90,i+1)))
dermia[i]=Low[i]+1050*Point;
if (iFractals(symbol,0,MODE_UPPER,i) && High[i]>taxi[i] && High[i]>iHigh(symbol,0,iHighest(symbol,0,MODE_HIGH,90,i+1)))
dermia2[i]=High[i]-1050*Point;
& this part is for the colors & labels of relative to the last print:
I’ll be 50 next year. I’m hoping to retire by the age of 52.
I would like to make a Macdulio’s MT4 Legacy video series where I would post all the basic routines and pass on as much of my thinking as I can.
I need to gain all full control of my time first and I also need to prove my own worthiness in my own eyes by paying off my flat – out of trading. This would mean £350k to be made in about 2.5 years, and I am starting with an additional £28k built up debt. Now you know why I am constantly pulling out money. I am a professional trader, but I want to be come a full time trader with minimal liabilities and dependencies first. Root for me.
To get some idea about the basic stuff, this blog entry could be potentially part of this.
30 mins chart.
Plot 30-sample hourly Bollinger Bands. That’s 60 in half an hour terms.
The horizontal lines are the first closes where volatility broke, i.e. the yellow circles.
As a next step, start acknowledging the one side to the other flips / new band Pops with a P.
The new direction is now set. Your should get 2 good entries before the move is over. These two entries would come in form of a contiuation divergence, meaning that the second entry would be a lower high / higher low.
In a sideways market (a squeeze) the muted moves would also have a 5-wave structure, but the second entry would actually be an undercut of the low or a beat of a high. Brown numbers. Yes, the second #2 looks like a Pop of the bands, but you would need more slack on boths sides, like the P to its right, which clearly managed to set the new direction for good.
The first suspect entry for the #1 is the middle band (60-SMA HL2) if price does not stop there, cost averaging on the other side is an option, see the image above.
From the #2 print price should travel outside the BB, but at times you would get a whole lot more if you manage to stay in. Here’s where that first 30-minute close outside (the horizontal lines) can come in handy.
So the current possible outcomes are: if price goes outside the BB on top first, double down on the shorts, move the #1 print, as the direction is down for 3 more legs from that point on.
Friday’s close could qualify for a #2 entry, but that would be unusually near to the #1. At this point it looks more like an echo.
The bands are very narrow, a decisive break outside and no closes above the new 30-minute close outside could be ridden and added to upon a pullback to the middle line.
Relax, it’s October when corpses are crawling from the sky.
All you ever needed was a catalyst for becoming a capitalist?
The quota has been met, the 125% monthly equity gain 2 days early would surely apply some upward pressure on that pre-imagined monthly 100% average.
If everything’s well, Orson’s Swell too.
About corrective waves then. What makes them? The lack of counter directional moves in excess of a fluctuation size. We should impose some time constraint too to make a clearer sense.
Gonna be handed out as a homework to look into.
b_ is the supposed displacement after a recoil to buy, first call is where the A leg is expected to end, the last call is where the C would make sense
A bit of Wine, a bit of spine, a bit of hug & a bit of luck.
What kind of a stress?! New mattress & an old mistress.
The following piece was brought forward from my future, Slow & Steady Windischgrätz entry (to be released in 3-4 months from now) as to de-clutter.
A pro trader knows that the statement is always sorted. You can have an alphabetical order or sort by opening time or by closing time or by profit or by order number.
This statement below is a forgery because it does not fit the sorting principles. I do not even have to look at the actual numbers.
So is this:
Once you rule out the alphabetical order and the profit order, look at the time stamps. They must be increasing or decreasing all the way through & they aren’t.
Withdrawals distort the humps a bit.
Aug: 105% gains
Sept: 97%
Oct: 127%
2-months statement.
No, I did not forge quickly 1,528 closed out trades.
ForexFore - Internals, indicators, algorithmic trading 