…stochastic bar (my Hybrid make is still available in the downloads) missing a beat aka Faith Healer. Either/or OR All.
In comparison to the Utmost condition that terminates a corrective structure, a divergence is not a straight out rejection calling the direction wrong, it is a walk away for wearing off the degree of overbought / oversold condition. In fact, the divergence underlines that this remains the direction of progression.
If I had to make a guess about where the Wave 4 up would cap out, I would look at the R1 at 1.0785 and the MA ribbon displacement at 1.0795.
Wave 3 was a channeling move, which means that it was kept outside the pendulum (green shaded moat).
The Suppressor Line is the E-16 HL2 hourly that defines a channeling move. Relative to the E-44, 35 and 45 pips out. The momentum line shows the divergence as well (double).
Return from 50% to 40%. Me thinks a Wave 4 up before a Wave 5 making a lower low. Then perhaps an ABC up for a right shoulder.
Yet another method I use for a prospect Wave 4 terminal:
Short & sweet artikel.
Wave 5 could tag the weekly S3 at 1.0617.
If the move would get to 45 pips beyond the mentioned value, the boat would capsize completely. Whatever rally that right shoulder would make, it should not trigger a Push, so it would have to close below the 14-sample Window Envelope (in blue).
The holdings are in line with more downside to come.
I am going to change this, but I wanna show something first.
What I don’t like about this plot is that if the market is at the steepest degree, the Push moves cross over the previous blow off lines, although only the Echo that counts.
So I am getting there. Never met anyone who is trying to make definitions for vague concepts, lingo and ends up thinking up market models with unabated inerest.
A few things to say here. I have been talking about not trying to fade within the blow off by 160 pips at least. At the bottom there was an approach that came within 100, and that was on the generous side. I do not expect this to get back as far.
TY
I changed the TY switch number from 26 to 27 pips. Think of the green shading as liquid water. Once the distance drops below 27 pips, the market can cross over over the thin ice. This is what the title was meant to refer to.
The next thing is the directives. High importance of the E-32 and the S-30. Also the [-> number would project a lower open.
Next thing the U-s. Two examples say that you would have to see a total of 3x 4H fractals outside the 30 Bollinger.
Example 1:
Example 2:
Overall there’s a faint possibility to reach back into the dirt pocket at the swing high made by Wave 2 (i.e. via a Spike) which was at 1.0939 (plus a handful of pips slack) before the Wave 5 down.
I did notice the upside volatility choke during Wave 1 down, but for Friday I thought they would push back the FXE above max pain at 100. Instead the opex was at 99.70 and the close at 99.58
It is interesting to see how the IG positioning went to 49% long vs 51% short whilst on the way up the typical long was at 39-40%.
You’ll just have to take my word for it, as their server is not functioning over the weekend. The direction is down and it is down hard. A Wave 4 may walk back into the Wave 1 at 1.0884+, but this is not a given. I have longs I need to get out of on a move up all the way from 1.0852. After that I would just have my 3.3 lots core shorts and play the downside for the mentioned 3 fractal prints with sell stops at every 10 pips down + my auto trail lock in routine. I would allow for a bigger bounce after hiting 1.0730-1.0720 where I intend to take up a full hedge at. That’s my trading plan.
Show off top. What’s next? Ground zero is the Weekly E-21. A nove of 45+ pips below the weekly S3 would mean a full left rudder. A lot of work to do. Low 1.06xx, this has not changed.
The steepest correction: the U-turn is quite obvious.
4x stretch was achieved, as I suggested it should & a LEMA happened to be the limiter.
Sweet & perfect bounce ftom the C_ cover level – happens to be the E-9D aka Green River; wave 2 of Wave 1 down is printing. Be extra careful with taking any longs.
At tomorrow’s open (10 PM GMT) the embedding would be lost.
1.0850 was hit on 13 out of the last 16 trading days.
(bouncing off the trendline started by the megaphone of the bear market)
What is missing here?
Spare the tension, it is the show off top.
If you look at the previous terminal terminal, the was a little detail there.
Not only price managed to match the 2nd Check Point defined by the push, but managed to make a 25+ pips beat beyond that point. So despite of 2 weeks having been transpired, the ink may not be dry on that echo just yet.
Clue #2: flat top – drop.
Also known as three domes and a house on the peak.
The risk off level is 1.0899. A call in (25 pips into the move) would prompt an 80+ pips target.
Clue #3&4:
The market is sttaying with embedded daily stochastic. This cancels the downside momentum.
The reversal divergence may be extended to a 3rd peak. Price is currently bouncing off the 19 EMA.
Clue #5:
There should be some stretch printing from the Green River, we are simply squatting on it. A 3x stretch is at 1.0976, 4x is at 1.1015.
Clue #6:
The British Telecom on the downside makes for a terminal. Price bounced off violently from the dirt box made by the previous B print on the upside.
For a finale, we should see a B and up to 3 T-s. That is 4 different 4-hour fractals, all of them outside the 4-Hour 30-sample BB. Days out.
At last, there is the conditioning. They are keep on telling you that a 50 bp hike would be a surprise, and the market would sell off. What if the market would sell off, but not before that show off top print?
There were a couple more things that occupy my mind, such as acknowledging the market in the era of overwhelming CTA presence, risk off taper, framework to follow. The market is evolving, so should you.
Health check of buying is initial momentum check by hourly RSI2 HL2. You want to see a straight shot from oversold to overbought. You can find below broken momentum examples as well.
Finding the trade…
First, side promotion.
The distance between the E414 High or Low and E712 on 30 mins. 26 pips or more is confidence inspiring.
Well there’s at least 5 different favoured entries. They all come with some provisory distance / target, but they could be ridden to the money flow divergence especially with a good kick off momentum.
Only going to discuss a bit here about the Local Buy or EX. See if you can spot it. Don’t forget the promoted side.
What normally happens is that the EX would be the low, unlike on the example above with some coasting.
Yea, I need to investigate myself what I did here, but there is cerainly a 78-sample lower low for the 3D (shadowed E), E stands for excessive reading (), I use a filter for having to be outside the local Bollinger Band for the green projection label above, ie:
This is now becoming an everyday feature. I don’t know who or when or why invented it.
Figure 1:
After the Qanon print there was a Wave 5 up, then 5 waves down for a Wave 1. Once the core Wave 2 printed, a dirt box of liquidity was made beyond it. A box like this can be as wide as 50 pips. When they folded the Wave 2 onto itself they managed to push price another 40 pips out setting back the starting point of Wave 3.
Figure 2:
This wave 2 is the wave 2 of the Wave 3 down. Similarly, they folded the wave back and managed to push the rock back up the hill beyond the core point by 10 pips. It is a vain battle but they cause immense pain and panic with this unsustainable move. Against gravity, against momentum.
A hint as to where the air benders can take price to is a hourly 216-sample HL2 BBwith 2.5 standard deviation.
2 weeks notice: I’ve noticed that the Echo has to arrive within 2 Weeks of a push, so there is a time out function, even if price does not manage to exceed the push level, it has to return to base.
The base is one of the 3 support / resistance levels. On the way down the typical return line was the R3 (red) discounting the last push down that came from the R2 and the first blood where price printed the megaphone, price only mad it back to R1. The market finally flipped after the R3 line was exceeded by 45 pips. The next leg down stopped at the 2std window envelope making a higher low (interrupted red).
On the way up the house has uniformly been the S1 level, making this incline way steeper and calling this move a Bear Market rally.
The idea behind the purple boxes is to highlight 2 levels where the echo could arrive from.
A return should be in progress, but where to? 1.0637 is S1. 1.0557 is S2. I am certainly curious of what kind of bounce the pro volume wick would give from that ever quoted 1.0733-1.0728 band, but I am certainly not anticipating a new push (9-sample higher high) resulting from it. The previous echo was a time out, and this last one did not make it to the first check point @ 1.0892 – shy by 7 pips. As of now, there is a definite undelying weakness.
The big day is here. Options sellers are going to cash in Steaks & Tesla Factories. That’s the Duffler effect of pisding trillions and trillions of dollars on time limited options into the Sacks.
If you did not understand that professional volume candle on the Euro that temporarily took the Euro out of the bear market and placed it on the top shelf neatly, now you must have an idea. Everything is rendered under the juggernaut, the greatest show on Earth, the US stock market, and FX isn’t immune to it either. Look at the volume that is finally settling in the counter party’s hands this evening.
The bottom of the shelf is at 1.0733-1.0728. Despite the momentum being down for 6 trading days, there hasn’t been a need for reinforcement just yet: even the 9-D EMA hasn’t been crossed.
A gap down over the weekend, anyone?
…
The bigger the sunction device, the bigger the sucking, and the more the sucklings play around with options, the more the game is going to be about expiring them worthless.
FXE is currently a 100 pips above the max pain.
The big move will happen when very few are on board to take advantage of it.
Does this feel like the summer of 67 to you? Is this now both climate and season change?
My next question goes to Elliott Beethoven.
If a Wave 2 cannot exceed the starting point of the Wave 1, and according to my broker on Raw spread it did, on fixed spread it didn’t, then did it?
At last we take a look at the skidding component.
Black Flagship Ladyship
Retracing my own steps, the black misstep seems to be about a lower low / higher high with receding RSI2 reading in progress.
Other then the Q-Anon marks (see last blog entry), a bit of daily embedding and a black misbeat seems to be the constellation you are looking for. Nick Rhodes says so.
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